Releasing its forecast for the years 2021 and 2022 in mid-June 2020, the Swedish Public Employment Service has warned that those that have entered the labour market relatively recently, notably young people and migrants, will be the hardest hit by the current economic crisis.

For a long time, immigrants have had a significantly lower employment rate than native Swedes. This is particularly the case for immigrant women. During the 2010s, the employment rate has continuously risen both among natives and the foreign-born. But since the foreign-born have accounted for most of the job growth, the gap between the employment rate of domestic and foreign-born has narrowed, albeit at a slow rate.

Due to the economic crisis caused by the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, the employment rate of the foreign-born is expected to decline. The employment agency's assessment is that the employment rate for immigrants aged between 16-64 years will fall from 66.6 per cent in 2019 to below 60 per cent in 2021. This would mean the lowest employment rate for the foreign-born throughout the 2000s.

The employment rate among natives is considerably higher, but is also expected to decline during the forecast period. The employment agency's assessment is that the employment rate for domestic-born individuals will decrease from 82.2 per cent in 2019 to 78.2 per cent in 2021. The decrease in the employment rate is therefore relatively higher for immigrants.

Changes in the population structure will reinforce the differences in employment rates for natives and immigrants. The foreign-born population aged between 16-64 years old continue to increase during the forecast period while the native-born population decreases.